Arik has over
thirteen years of experience in the area of computer technology,
including quantitative modeling, energy economics, load research and
information systems. Yavuz brings to Liberty’s clients a strong
Natural gas resource optimization modeling
natural gas demand forecasting
Natural gas load research
Yavuz holds an MA in Economics from
Georgetown University, and a BS in Industrial Engineering from
Bogazici University in Turkey.
has served as lead consultant on a number of Liberty’s projects
where his focus has been in the areas of natural gas planning,
resource optimization modeling and demand forecasting.
Yavuz has developed ROGM, a gas
supply optimization and simulation tool for integrated least cost
planning, demand-side management program evaluation, rate cases,
marginal cost analysis, strategic resource planning, cost-of-service
studies and unbundling studies. ROGM calculates tradeoffs between
reserve requirements, cost of gas supply, and resource acquisition
and utilization for gas distribution companies and independent power
producers by formulating the optimal usage mix of current resources.
Several studies based on ROGM have been filed with Public Service
Yavuz has also developed a
comprehensive gas and electric demand-forecasting model for an
energy services company. The system uses load research data for
customer groups along with weather data and monthly historical
demand data to develop Monte Carlo
simulations of system demand and demand variability by weather and
other factors. This model can be used in tandem with ROGM to develop
short-term and long-term supply planning and portfolio analysis.
Yavuz has managed a number of demand
forecast studies for gas and electric utilities. In conjunction, he
developed both econometric forecasting models and end-use models for
Yavuz has recently conducted
economic studies for a number of natural gas utilities. These
studies include demand forecasting and gas supply planning,
restructuring, market power assessment, asset valuation, merger
competitiveness analysis, and evaluation of balancing requirements.